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  Pulp and Paper NetLetter

Thursday, June 19, 2008

    + PPN NetLetter
Publication Papers: Magazine in the Starting Blocks
Pap'Argus 6/11/2008 9:36:32 AM
There is complete consensus as all the major papermakers have announced price rises for publication papers for July 1. The actual increases range from 40 and 50 euros/tonne depending on the company, and with variations depending on the grade.

The first announcement came out in April with an attempt to apply the rises to non-contract customers. In the press sector however contracts of at least six months are the rule and in the end July represents the first real opportunity to adjust prices.

Myllykoski communicated its desire to apply a 50 euros/tonne rise for mechanical coated and uncoated papers and the company is now recommending its customers to take the necessary measures as it already has a further price rise in the pipeline for the 4th quarter.

M-real announced 50 euros at the start of the spring to be applied as of April 1 for non-contract sales although we have not found evidence of its application. Sellers are now asking for 50 euros more as of July 1 for the entire “Galerie” range (LWC= Galerie Lite; MWC= Galerie Brite; LTB= Galerie Fine and Galerie Silk). Like Myllykoski, the company is only giving limited price validities (end of September) in order to allow the possibility of a further increase for the end of the year.

Over at Stora Enso, the rise is +40 euros/tonne for mechanical coated, as well as for SC. The company has also put newsprint on its price rise schedule and it will be asking for an additional +3% for improved newsprint, as of July 1.

As for UPM, it wants 50 euros in Europe and 50 pounds in the UK, and Burgo is at the same level and is also hoping for a second increase in the 4th quarter. According to the company, pressure from the papermaker groups and their shareholders is now increasing in Europe and even more so in North America. Sappi is only asking for 40 euros and has modulated the rise for the weights.

To a certain extent these price rise announcements come at a very good time: The figures from Cepiprint for April have proved to be satisfactory with European demand in the first 4 months of 2008 up by 5.8% for magazine SC and 3.7% for LWC. Overall shipments of publication papers (all grades) were up 2.6% during the period.

France’s printed press benefited from a boost in advertising in May, against a decline for TV and radio. According to TNS Media Intelligence, advertising expenditure in the magazine segment was up 4% in May 2008 compared with May 2007, in the daily press it was up 5.6% and these latter also increased the number of pages sold by 3%. The press media as a whole has recorded 5% higher gross receipts as of the beginning of the year over the same period 2007.

Other voices have pointed out that the summer is usually the period for price discounts and that September is more conventionally the time when increases are applied but scheduling this way round would mean that the sellers lost an opportunity to enforce a second rise towards the end of the year.

Some of our correspondents are more worried about the situation and they accept the determination among papermakers to push their prices up as this has become a critical need for those companies experiencing difficulties. They are also expecting production stoppages if the sellers do not get what they want. The 4 major operators (Stora, UPM, Myllykoski and M-real) have already announced plant closures covering around 600,000 tonnes in mechanical coated papers and 250,000 t in uncoated, and if there are other stoppages supplies could be hard to come by for buyers. Mention is already being made of the American situation where prices for the equivalent of LWC have risen 20% but it is now very difficult to obtain supplies.

This sort of situation would clearly not benefit the growth of paper at a time when this is becoming increasingly subject to taxes in the context of environmental protection, with increasing competition from substitutes available over the Internet. Paper will become increasingly scarce and probably expensive … but the surviving papermakers may be able at last to make some money.


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